2 weeks ago I wrote a short article discussing the porous state of sanctions and that Ukrainian strikes on Russian facilities offered the only real hope for sanctions. I would love to claim prescience or insider knowledge, but I got lucky with timing on a decent observation of one port facility being hit. Since Feb 29, Ukrainian special operators have been exceedingly busy.
As America continues to fail to deliver needed military aid, effective economic sanctions, or even seized Russian assets, Ukraine is using asymmetric warfare to shut down Russian industrial facilities. General Kyrolo Budanov, head of Ukrainian intelligence has engineered multiple strikes and may be responsible for others. We have a drone strike to Rosneft’s Russian Refinery in Ryazan on Mar 13:
Given the size and estimate damage to the Rosneft plant. It is estimate it will knock out up to 10% of Russian refined products (unrefined oil products will not be effected). There is a possibility that this attack could have very strong knock on effects if Russia starts selling more crude to make up for its loss in refining capacity. I expect that significantly more attacks will be necessary for that to happen, but I would nonetheless like to share with everyone the most optimistic case, as laid out by this fellow economic writer for Ukraine on twitter:
For Beefeaters’ case to come true, I foresee Russian refining capacity would have to be more significantly crippled, truly forcing them to finance themselves by flooding the market with crude. Either way, this outlook gives an idea of the counterintuitive possibilities that continued oil strikes could have.
On Mar 12, we had an attack in Belgorod on major Oil Storage tanks.
The Ukrainian government has stated those oil tanks were for military use—this has not been disputed and makes sense given their proximity to the front.
A small attack on Mar 5 against a Kursk Oblast railway station resulted in a fire and no casualties, according to the Russians. While this is unlikely to have major economic consequences, it is very logistically important for Ukraine to degrade and cripple Russian train infrastructure–we hope to see continued attacks on railway stations close to Ukraine but behind the Russian lines–its very hard for Russian soldiers to shoot weapons that cannot make it to them because the trainlines are down. Pictures of this fire are nearly impossible to find, but here is a map to demonstrate the proximity of this depot to the Ukrainian frontlines.
There are still more key industrial fires in Russia that are unclear as to their origins. The industrial explosions caused by Ukraine hinders the Russian capability to restore industrial capabilities. These fires are unclear if it is bad Russian management or a Ukrainian Operative—it is likely we will never know the answer to the cause of these fires, but we can report their occurrence. With the auspicious date of also being on mar 12, a power plant in St. Petersburg caught on fire:
Image from Ukrainska Pravda
On Mar 10 we saw a fire at the St. Petersburg airport that engulfed over 1,000 square meters (about 20% the size of a football field).
Image from Ukrainska Pravda.
Russia already had a very high rate of industrial fires. The continued rate of Russian industrial fires puts pressure on supplies of critical parts needed to fix these facilities as well as downstream effects of products being unavailable while they are down. While this writer still lacks a crystal ball or inside information, I note that the Siberian Power Pipeline moving natural gas to China as well as many Russian oil facilities remain soft targets for the enterprising Ukrainian SBU.
We in the West are failing to arm Ukraine or sanction Russia for its heinous acts. On the matter of sanctions, where we have failed, Ukraine now seems determined to take up the banner. The best way for these attacks to stop would be for Russia to go home.
Addendum: Mike Johnson wins my Russian Bootlicker of the Month
Mike Johnson wins the exceedingly scientific and econometric award of Russian bootlicker of the month. Dubbed Moscow Mike by his detractors, Mike Johnson has done his best to delay Ukraine aid by almost every means he can. This despite that a majority of Democrats and an estimated half of Republicans would like to vote yes to support Ukraine defending itself from Russian genocide. While much of the blame is being given to indicted former President Donald Trump’s opposition to the bill, the former President is not the Speaker of the House. Here at the Perception Money Substack, I give 100% agency to bad actors who can act of their own accord: a Speaker of the House is not beholden to any singular if they so desire to do the right thing. Instead of choosing to pass bipartisan legislation (something most American LOVE in our heavily partisan era ), Speaker Johnson continues to find ways to debate, delay, and block giving the military and humanitarian aid needed to fight back against a genocidal Russian invasion. Every day Ukraine is low on shells, more people die. For this, Mike Johnson is my Russian Bootlicker of the Month.
Meme posted by ZeroGravityFella on twitter
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